Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that by December, the number of coins in US spot bitcoin ETFs (BTC-ETF) could surpass the holdings of bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. In the second half of October alone, these funds attracted approximately $4 billion in capital, with the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) securing around $2.6 billion.
Simple calculations suggest that at the current accumulation rate (about 17,000 coins per week), bitcoin ETFs could amass 1 million BTC within just a few days. This trend means that by December, ETF holdings may exceed Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million coins.

At the same time, Balchunas cautions that the crypto market remains volatile and unpredictable, so these timelines could change significantly. However, the growth trajectory for BTC funds is expected to stay upward. “Anything can happen,” Balchunas notes. “For instance, a major sell-off could delay this milestone, but it’s merely a pause in the inevitable. On the other hand, if prices keep climbing and Trump wins, we could see FOMO kick in, accelerating the timeline.” (FOMO, or “fear of missing out,” refers to the anxiety of missing a significant opportunity.)