The total volume of bets on the winner of the US presidential election on the Polymarket crypto-prediction platform has reached nearly $2 billion. According to the platform, Donald Trump is ahead of Kamala Harris by a full 16%. Polymarket users have estimated the former president’s chances of becoming the next US president at 57.9%, while the current vice president’s chances stand at 41.8%. In September, the situation was different, with Harris leading for most of the month.
It should be noted that Polymarket’s data does not always align with traditional polling results. For instance, a national poll conducted by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris leading the race with 48.5% compared to Trump's 46.1%.

Analysts at XPBEE suggest that Polymarket users may favour Trump simply because he has been more vocal in his support for cryptocurrencies. Speaking as the keynote speaker at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Trump promised that if he wins the election, he will fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office. Gensler, appointed by current president Joe Biden, is known for his tough stance on the crypto industry and has repeatedly stated that the sector is rife with speculation. Trump’s statement was met with overwhelming enthusiasm from the conference attendees, who applauded and even chanted his name. The former president also vowed to make the US the "cryptocurrency capital of the world," retain 100% of the bitcoins held by the government, establish a "national bitcoin reserve," and swiftly form a presidential council on cryptocurrency matters.

It is worth noting that Trump’s current crypto-enthusiasm in his bid for the digital community's votes stands in stark contrast to his 2021 stance, when he told Fox Business that bitcoin was a scam and was undermining the value of the dollar.